You've probably heard the saying:
Opinions are like... ________ ...everybody has one!
Fill in the blank as you please, but swap out Opinions for Market Forecasts.
Forecasts aiming to time the markets, or predict the next Bitcoin, have no value. Sure, every once in a while they're right. The jackpot on a slot machine hits every once in a while too - and is loud enough so everyone in ear-shot knows it could be them next time... as long as they keep gambling.
The role of a forecast is to set reasonable expectations about uncertain outcomes so we can make sound current decisions about our personal financial plans.
For a successful investment experience the hurdle we must overcome most often is ourselves. We will always be biased to the current/recent events of the markets. September closed out Q3 with the worst monthly return for US Stock Markets1, down about 4.5%, since March 2020. However, zoom out just slightly to recall July + August had the US Market up about 4.5% - making Q3 in total essentially flat.
I hope the spooky September didn't scare anyone out of the markets... with October nearly complete the US Stock Market is back up nearly 5.5%, pushing the YTD total north of 20%.
We take a look backward at the numbers of the stock markets in the 3rd Quarter of 2021, plus October's lead into the final quarter of the year.
US Stock Market1: +1.69%
International Developed2: -1.65%
Emerging Markets3: -6.73%
US Bond Market4: +1.12%
US Stock Market: +2.85%
International Developed: +1.90%
Emerging Markets: +2.62%
US Bond Market: -0.19%
US Stock Market: -4.49%
International Developed: -3.20%
Emerging Markets: -3.97%
US Bond Market: -0.87%
Market segment (index representation) as follows: US Stock Market (Russell 3000 Index), International Developed Stocks (MSCI World ex USA Index [net div.]), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index [net div.]), US Bond Market (Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index). S&P data © 2021 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2021, all rights reserved. Bloomberg data provided by Bloomberg.
News and Updates
A few notable or major changes proposed:
- The American Families Plan would tax capital gains at death for unrealized gains above $1 million ($2 million for joint filers).
- The American Families Plan would limit 1031 Like-Kind Exchanges by eliminating deferral of gains above $500,000.
- The American Families Plan would tax long-term capital gains and dividends as ordinary income for taxpayers with taxable income above $1 million.
- The American Jobs Plan would increase the federal corporate income tax rate from 21 percent to 28 percent.
- The American Families Plan would expand the 3.8 percent Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) to apply to all sources of income above $400,000, including active pass-through income.
- The American Families Plan would raise the top marginal income tax rate from 37 percent to 39.6 percent.
- The American Families Plan would extend through 2025 the American Rescue Plan's enhanced Child Tax Credit (CTC) of $3,600 for children under age 6 and $3,000 for children ages 6 to 17 subject to phaseouts for higher-income households.
Complete data contained within the full Q3 Market Review report.
Market segment (index representation) as follows: 1US Stock Market (Russell 3000 Index), 2International Developed Stocks (MSCI World ex USA Index [net div.]), 3Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index [net div.]), 4US Bond Market (Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index). S&P data © 2021 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2021, all rights reserved. Bloomberg data provided by Bloomberg.
Advisory services are offered through Rise Private Wealth Advisors LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor in the State of Arizona. Insurance products and services are offered through Independent Agents. The information contained herein should in no way be construed or interpreted as a solicitation to sell or offer to sell advisory services to any residents of any State other than the State of Arizona or where otherwise legally permitted. All written content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to provide any tax or legal advice or provide the basis for any financial decisions. The information contained in this material has been derived from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness and does not purport to be a complete analysis of the materials discussed.